مجلة العلوم الإقتصادية
Volume 10, Numéro 2, Pages 01-21
2015-12-31
نمذجة قياسية لمحدّدات الادخار المحلي في الجزائر خلال الفترة 1980-2012
الكاتب : عكريش كمال . جميل عبد الجليل .
الملخص
The main objective of this research paper is to investigate the long run relationship between domestic saving rate and several explanatory variables that were expected to have a strong influence on the behavior of domestic saving. These variables are : domestic saving ratio lagged one year, inflation rate, real deposit rate,gross domestic product per capita and financial deeping in Algeria through the period (1980-2012) using Johansen-Juselius (1990) cointegration test and Error Correction Model (ECM) according to the methodology of Engel-Granger. Results of ADF and P-P tests indicate that both series are cointegrated of order one I(1). Add to that, the outcomes of cointegration analysis confirm a positive relationship between domestic saving ratio lagged one year,GDP per capita,real deposit rate and domestic saving rate in the long run, and negative correlation between financial deeping,inflation rate and domestic saving rate. The estimated cointegration model revealed that the determination coefficient is very high at 0.898. This indicated that the explanatory variables explained 89.8% of the changes in the domestic saving in Algeria .Results of the ECM have illustrated that the error-correction term is negative and significant with an adjustment coefficient of (- 0.780), pointing out that changes in domestic saving rate adjust to its equilibrium level in the long run with 78% of the adjustment taking place within the first year.
الكلمات المفتاحية
domestic saving,co-integration,Error correction model.
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