مجلة الإبداع
Volume 14, Numéro 2, Pages 77-94
2024-07-01
The Impact Of Population Growth On Unemployment Rates In Blida Province: An Analytical And Econometric Study For The Period 2000-2022.
Authors : Abdelli Idriss . Enad Osama Mohamed Ahmed .
Abstract
This study aims to measure the impact of population growth on unemployment rates in Blida province using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, relying on annual data from 2000 to 2002. The econometric study results indicate that the effect of population growth on unemployment rates was positive in the long run, while in the short run, although positive, the effect was not statistically significant. Among the findings is the presence of cointegration, and the error correction coefficient was statistically significant and negative, indicating that short-term unemployment rate errors are corrected within approximately 28 months, implying that the adjustment speed towards equilibrium in the long run takes about two years and four months. Diagnostic tests results showed that the model is devoid of the following problems : autocorrelation of errors, heteroscedasticity of errors, non-normality of errors. Additionally, the model is unstable, indicating inconsistency between the parameters of the long run and short run, rendering it unfit for prediction.
Keywords
Population Growth ; Unemployment ; Blida ; ARDL
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