LARHYSS Journal
Volume 18, Numéro 2, Pages 163-291
2021-07-07
Analysis Of Climate Change Impact On The Statistical Adjustment Models Of Extreme Rainfall : Case Of Ivory Coast
Authors : Nassa Relwinde Abdoul-karim . Kouassi Amani Michel . Bossa S. Judith .
Abstract
The objective of this study is the analysis of the sensitivity of the statistical This study focuses on the analysis of the sensitivity of the statistical models of extremes according to the climatic context. It was based on annual maximum daily rainfall data and annual rainfall data collected over the period 1931-2010 from twenty-six (26) rainfall stations in Ivory Coast. The methodological approach is based on the one hand on the characterization of the climatic context based on annual rainfall. On the other hand, the approach of frequency analysis of extreme rainfall was adopted. The results of the climatic characterization highlighted two periods namely a wet period before 1970 (1931-2010) and a dry period after 1970 (1971-2010). It is found that the wet period is dominated by the models of Gumbel (54%), Gamma (19%) and exponential (11%). As for the dry period, it is dominated by the inverse Gamma (38%), Gumbel (35%) and Gamma (23%) models. The different statistical models of extremes are therefore sensitive to the climatic context of the data. These results raise the problem of hydrological norms calculated from the quantiles of the models of extremes in a current context of climate change.
Keywords
Changements climatiques ; Sensibilité des lois ; Analyse fréquentielle ; Côte d’Ivoire
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