Rеvuе des Energies Renouvelables
Volume 18, Numéro 1, Pages 105-125
2015-03-31

Statistical Analysis Of Wind Speed Distribution Based On Six Weibull Methods For Wind Power Evaluation In Garoua, Cameroon



Authors : Kidmo D.k. . Danwe R. . Doka S.y. . Djongyang N. .

Abstract

Wind data analysis and accurate wind energy potential assessment are critical factors for suitable development of wind power application at a given location. This paper explores wind speed distribution to select the two-parameter Weibull methods that provide accurate and efficient estimation of energy output for Wind Energy Conversion Systems (WECS).The dimensionless shape parameter k and the scale parameter C are determined based on measured hourly mean wind speed data in times-series from 2007 to 2012, collected at the Garoua International Airport, main meteorological station, in Garoua, Cameroon. Six numerical methods, namely Empirical Method (EM), Energy Pattern Factor method (EPF), Graphical Method (GM), Maximum Likelihood Method (MLM), Moment Method (MM) and Modified Maximum Likelihood Method (MMLM) are examined to estimate the Weibull parameters. To analyze the efficiency of the methods and to ascertain how closely the measured data follow the Weibull methods, goodness of fit tests were performed using the chi-square test (χ2), correlation coefficient (R2), root mean square error (RMSE) and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (KOL). The results revealed that the EPF followed by the MM were the most accurate and efficient methods for determining the value of C and k to approximate wind speed distribution. The statistical tests rejected the GM as an adequate method and revealed as well that the EM, MLM and MMLM ranked respectively third, fourth and fifth. Furthermore, the potential for wind energy development in Garoua is not fitted for generating electricity and a very fruitful result would be achieved if windmills were installed for producing community water supply, livestock watering, and farm irrigation.

Keywords

Maximum likelihood method, Modified maximum likelihood method, Graphical method, Energy pattern factor method, Empirical method.

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