Impact of Crude Oil Price Fluctuations on Consumer Price Index in Kenya

Yodah Walter,  Ouma Chrisphine,  Machel Graca,  Ajwang Jeanette, 
2024-04-01

Résumé: ABSTRACT: This study tries to determine the impact of crude oil price fluctuations on Consumer Price Index, CPI in Kenya using the monthly data from 2012M1-2023M3. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test used in the analysis to test for stationarity for the series indicated that CPI and major types of Crude oil (Kerosene, Diesel, and Super petrol) were non-stationary. The empirical analysis is carried out using cointegration by applying Johansen’s multivariate approach which reveals that not more than one cointegrating relationship holds among oil prices and CPI in Kenya. The analysis using VECM further shows that the series deviation from equilibrium to disequilibrium cannot be corrected back to equilibrium in the long run. The impulse response functions reveal that oil price shocks positively affects CPI in Kenya. As expected, the forecasted values continue to exhibit an increasing trend in the major oil type prices and CPI values in Kenya. The Jacque-Bera test for normality, ARCH-LM test for Homoscedasticity, and Portmanteau test for serial correlation were used to test for the adequacy of the Model.

Mots clés: Crude Oil, Consumer Price Index, VECM, Inflation, Gross Domestic Product

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Does Monetary Policy Matter for Economic Growth in Tanzania? A Critical Analysis

Miku Benjamine G.,  Katunzi Tumaini M., 
2024-04-01

Résumé: This paper aims to examine the influence of monetary policy on economic growth of Tanzania utilizing the Autoregressive Distributed Lad model (ARDL). Analysing yearly time series data from 1970 to 2022, the study contributes by offering empirical insights into whether monetary policy impacts economic growth in Tanzania. The empirical findings indicate that in the long run, there is a negative relationship between growth of monetary aggregates (base money M0 and broad/near money M2) and economic growth. There is also a positive relationship between expansion of broader money supply (M3) and the growth of the economy in Tanzania. However, in the short-run the paper discovers a positive relationship between base money (M0) and economic growth and a negative relationship between discount window rate and short-term economic growth. The paper suggests reassessment if the existing monetary policy frameworks in light of the observed negative relationship, continue backing for a conducive monetary policy environment to facilitate positive connection between broader money supply (M3) and economic growth, and considering adjusting the discount window rate to bolster short-time economic growth as well as lowering the discount window rate since it has the potential for incentivizing borrowing and investment thereby stimulating economic activities in the short run.

Mots clés: Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy ; Monetary Aggregates ; Discount Rate ; ARDL

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Effect of monetary policy on food inflation in Nigeria: Evidence form Quantile Regression Model

Nadani Abdulrahman Abdullahi ,  Mohammed Dansabo Usman ,  Yaro Ibrahim ,  Aondoawase Asooso , 

Received date: 21-12-2023    Publication date: 31-12-2023    pages  05-14.   

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THE ALGERIAN SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM IN THE FACE OF DIGITALIZATION

Abderrahmane Djoher ,  Scalera Francesco , 

Received date: 15-12-2023    Publication date: 31-12-2023    pages  15-22.   

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L'approche GRH, un levier d'insertion professionnelle des jeunes diplômés algériens : le cas de Candia Tchin Lait

Brachouche Bilal , 

Date de réception: 08-12-2023    Date de publication: 31-12-2023    pages  23-31.   

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L'impact des dispositifs d'accompagnement sur l'insertion socio-économique et professionnelle en Algérie

Hamza Fairouz ,  Djamane Mohammed Fayçal ,  Chachoua Amira , 

Date de réception: 30-11-2023    Date de publication: 31-12-2023    pages  32-40.   

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Élaboration d’une stratégie de gestion des déchets et de protection de l’environnement dans une perspective de responsabilité sociale des entreprises

Morsli Faten ,  Sekkal Houria , 

Date de réception: 16-12-2023    Date de publication: 31-12-2023    pages  41-55.   

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